Trump’s 2025 Trade Policy: Impacts and Ongoing Negotiations

Thanks for the clarification. I’ll look into trade deals and tariff-related negotiations initiated or completed by Donald Trump during his current (second) presidency, as well as those that remain unresolved.

I’ll update you shortly with a detailed breakdown of countries involved, the nature of the agreements or tariffs, and any ongoing negotiations.

Summary of U.S. Trade Deals and Tariff Actions under Trump (2025)

Country/RegionStatus
United KingdomDeal Made
ChinaDeal Made (Preliminary)
VietnamNegotiating (Near Deal)
IndiaNegotiating
JapanNegotiating
South KoreaNegotiating
European UnionTariff Dispute Ongoing
CanadaNegotiating
MexicoNegotiating
ThailandNegotiating
MalaysiaNegotiating
CambodiaNegotiating
TaiwanNegotiating
IndonesiaNegotiating
PakistanNegotiating
SwitzerlandNegotiating

In April 2025 President Trump imposed sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on virtually all trading partners (10% baseline on all imports, up to 50% on some). He then announced a 90‑day pause (reverting to 10% on most goods until July 9) to negotiate new bilateral deals. The following sections summarize the outcomes and ongoing talks by partner region. Key affected sectors include agriculture (corn, beef, dairy, ethanol), automotive, steel/aluminum, and tech/digital trade.

United Kingdom – New Trade Agreement

In May 2025 Trump announced a historic U.S.–UK “Economic Prosperity Deal” (signed in principle May 8) that removes many barriers and opens markets for both sides. USTR Jamieson Greer explained it “lays the groundwork to reduce tariffs on U.S. products, remove discriminatory trade barriers for U.S. agricultural and industrial goods, [and] give U.S. producers reciprocal market access”. For example, the UK agreed to remove a 20% tariff on U.S. beef and create a 13,000‑metric‑ton duty‑free quota for U.S. beef. The U.S. will reallocate 13,000 MT of its existing beef quota to the UK in return, and the UK will also open a 1.4 billion‑liter duty‑free quota for U.S. ethanol. Likewise, the U.S. will set a 100,000‑vehicle quota at a 10% tariff for UK autos, protecting some U.S. car producers while giving UK manufacturers limited access. Other provisions include negotiating preferential treatment for pharmaceuticals, and the UK committing to meet U.S. supply‑chain security rules for steel and aluminum (with the U.S. promising MFN‑rate quotas on UK steel/alum if those are met).

Trump and USTR officials celebrated this deal as immediately expanding market access for American farmers and manufacturers. USTR noted it “lowers trade barriers, opening $5 billion of increased market access for American exports, especially for American farmers”. Farm and ethanol groups likewise praised newly opened markets for U.S. corn, beef, dairy, and biofuels. (E.g. Nebraska’s delegation cited $700 million in new ethanol exports and $250 million in beef exports under the quota.) The agreement also codifies modern digital‑trade rules (USMCA‑style) to benefit U.S. tech firms.

Key sectors: U.S. agriculture (beef, dairy, ethanol, corn, pork), autos (100k vehicles at 10%), aerospace and manufacturing, and digital/tech (strong e‑commerce rules) are most affected. Notably, Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum remain in place on both sides (these were explicitly not removed). (Canada–U.S. automotive rules under USMCA also apply.) The UK deal was finalized at the G7 summit (effective June 30, 2025) and immediately implemented, though it left 50% steel/aluminum duties unresolved.

China – Preliminary Trade Agreement

Also in June 2025 the U.S. reached a framework trade agreement with China. Details are limited, but USTR and press reports indicate China agreed to ease export controls on rare earths and certain technology minerals, while the U.S. agreed to lift some of its export controls on Chinese tech. (Treasury Sec. Bessent said China will more readily approve exports of magnets and rare earths used in chips.) However, major issues were not resolved: the pact “includes absolutely nothing related to the U.S.’s concerns regarding China’s trade surplus or non-market behavior”, and longstanding complaints about Chinese subsidies and IP theft remain. Sources confirm the deal was reached on June 26, 2025; it eased China’s restrictions on critical minerals for U.S. industry and prompted a reciprocal easing of U.S. curbs. The agreement was described as a “de‑escalation” of tariffs, but it left most tariffs in place (import duties remained at newly negotiated high levels pending further talks).

Key sectors: Technology and defense‑related industries are central: rare earth minerals, computer chips, and other high-tech inputs; as well as renewable-energy components. U.S. exporters hope for improved access (e.g. electric-vehicle batteries, electronics). Agriculture was less prominent in this pact, though past tensions over Chinese pork/dairy are still unresolved. Notably, this China deal did not immediately roll back existing tariffs on industrial goods or autos; it focused on export controls and minerals.

Asia-Pacific Negotiations

  • Vietnam: The U.S. is close to a deal with Vietnam. Reuters reported that Vietnam “expects to finalize a trade deal… before the July 9 deadline,” citing frequent talks with the Trump team. Details are not public, but an agreement in principle (often called a framework) was apparently announced. Industry sources say it likely covers access to Vietnamese markets for U.S. goods. Key sectors: U.S. manufacturers and ag exporters (e.g. cotton, poultry) aim to gain from lower barriers.
  • India: High‑level talks with India remain ongoing. Trump himself said a “very big” deal is “likely” and under negotiation, but India and the U.S. have yet to bridge gaps on sensitive products. The sticking points include U.S. demands to open India’s dairy and agricultural markets, and India’s insistence on keeping tariffs on U.S. farm goods relatively high. Negotiators met in Washington in late June 2025, but no agreement was signed by mid‑2025. Key sectors: U.S. soybean, meat, and dairy industries seek tariff cuts; India wants industrial access and tech transfer concessions.
  • Japan: Talks with Japan are stalled. Japan has demanded lower U.S. auto tariffs and wider market access, but the U.S. has resisted broad cuts. By early July 2025 President Trump publicly “puntted” on Japan, claiming it was time to move on. He sent Japan a letter on July 7 imposing a 25% tariff on all Japanese imports (up from the 24% proposed in April) effective August 1. Japanese leaders remain willing to negotiate, but no deal was reached by the deadline. Key sectors: Auto manufacturers are at the center – Japan is especially concerned about U.S. tariffs on cars and parts, which remain at 25%.
  • South Korea: Similarly, talks with South Korea continued through July with no final deal. South Korea pushed for reductions of U.S. auto and steel tariffs, while the U.S. pressed Korea on other issues (e.g. plastics, agriculture). In July, Trump sent South Korea a letter imposing a 25% tariff on Korean imports (matching the earlier announced rate) effective August 1. South Korean officials described the talks as “very difficult.” Key sectors: Korean autos (a $40B bilateral auto trade) and steel/aluminum were prime issues; steel deals were also left unsettled.
  • Southeast Asia (ASEAN): Multiple countries have active negotiations. Thailand, for example, submitted a proposal in June and is seeking a tariff cap of 10% on its goods. Malaysia agreed in late June to finalize a trade pact by the July 9 deadline. Cambodia submitted detailed tariff and investment offers. Taiwan completed a second round of talks in late June reporting “constructive progress” on tariffs and supply‑chain issues. Indonesia has eased some import licensing and offered greater U.S. access to critical minerals to move the talks forward. By July, most of these talks were ongoing; none was finalized by the deadline but all remain in play. Key sectors: U.S. exporters of electronics, agriculture, and minerals (e.g. copper, nickel) are eyeing better access. Some countries seek U.S. market openings for textiles and seafood.
  • Other Asia/Mideast: Switzerland reported ongoing talks and “optimism” for a deal by July 9. Pakistan likewise said it expects to conclude talks soon. No new agreements were announced in these cases as of mid‑2025.

Europe – EU Negotiations and Disputes

Negotiations with the European Union are progressing slowly and remain highly contentious. Trump had initially imposed a 20% tariff on all EU imports in April 2025 (covering $180B in goods), then paused it at 10% for talks. In May he threatened to jack EU tariffs to 50% on everything, a move that spooked markets. The EU responded by preparing retaliation: officials announced they would impose counter‑tariffs on hundreds of U.S. products (from beef and cars to aircraft and consumer goods) if no agreement was reached. Washington and Brussels agreed to keep negotiating (with Maroš Šefčovič traveling to D.C. in early July), but the underlying disputes remain unresolved.

Major friction points with the EU include automotive trade, agricultural standards, and digital taxes. The U.S. continues to enforce its Section 232 tariffs (25%) on all EU steel/aluminum and autos. The UK deal left those U.S. tariffs intact, and the EU faces the same U.S. duties (50% on steel/alum and 25% on autos). Brussels insists on tariff cuts for its cars and waivers for Airbus, while Washington presses the EU to drop its digital services taxes and regulatory barriers (e.g. on meat). Talks are ongoing, but both sides are preparing contingencies (retaliatory tariffs) if no deal is struck.

Key sectors: EU exporters of automobiles, machinery, chemicals, and wine/spirits (especially France, Germany, Italy) are most at risk from U.S. tariffs. U.S. firms exporting tech and services worry that the EU’s digital tax dispute could stall a trade pact. Steel and aluminum producers on both sides remain in limbo under the 25–50% tariffs. Agricultural goods (EU cheese, U.S. poultry, etc.) are also a flashpoint.

North America – Canada and Mexico

  • Canada: Trade talks resumed in July after Canada abandoned its planned digital services tax. Trump had halted negotiations in June when Canada imposed a 3% tax on U.S. tech (threatening ~$3B retroactive charges), but Canada later scrapped the tax. U.S. negotiators returned to the table under a G7‑agreed deadline of July 21. Canada’s stated goal is full removal of U.S. tariffs (and both sides want to improve auto and ag rules). As of mid‑2025, no deal was completed, but discussions are active. Key sectors: Canadian auto parts and aluminum producers seek U.S. exemptions; U.S. tech firms pressed Canada to drop the DST. Both farmers and manufacturers on each side hope for expanded access.
  • Mexico: Bilateral talks with Mexico focused largely on steel and aluminum tariffs. Mexico still imposes a 50% tariff on U.S. steel, and the U.S. has 25% on Mexican steel and 10% on aluminum. In June Mexico agreed to negotiate a quota system to replace its 50% steel tariff. No final pact was reported by mid‑2025, but Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicated progress. (Meanwhile, the USMCA agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico is in mandatory review starting 2026; Trump’s team is expected to seek amendments.) Key sectors: Steelworkers on both sides; auto parts (subject to varying duties); agriculture under USMCA rules.

Key Industries and Sectors

Across these negotiations, agriculture and biofuels have been frequent bargaining chips. The U.S. has pressed for wide access for its farm exports, and many deals granted it. For instance, the UK deal unlocked billions in U.S. ag exports (beef, dairy, ethanol, corn, pork) via new quotas. USTR and agriculture groups noted they secured access for “virtually all” U.S. farm products. Similar pressure is seen in talks with Japan and India, where U.S. soybean, beef and dairy farmers are demanding lower tariffs.

The automotive sector is another focal point. Trump insisted on protecting U.S. carmakers by capping rival imports. The UK deal’s 100k‐vehicle quota at 10% (and a lower 7.5% rate for those cars) exemplifies this. Japan and Korea aggressively seek tariff cuts on cars, but the U.S. held firm at 25%. Auto tariffs remain a leading unresolved issue in EU and Asia negotiations.

Steel, aluminum, and industrial goods are a constant dispute. All current deals have left U.S. Section 232 tariffs in place: U.S. 25% steel/alum duties continue on EU, UK, and other imports. (Commerce revoked all prior exemptions for these tariffs in June 2025.) Britain, the EU, and others must meet U.S. security requirements to gain any relief. Thus metal industries face uncertainty: quotas may be granted (as with the UK quota), but all parties still have high default tariffs.

In technology and services, digital trade rules are a priority with close allies. The US–UK accord explicitly includes “USMCA‑style” digital provisions. The Canada talks began only after Canada renounced its tech‑company tax. In contrast, with China the focus is on semiconductor and mineral supply chains (rare earths, chips). There are also investigations into tariffs on iPhones, AI hardware, and biotech inputs, though most of these are still at the Section 232 investigation stage (see Tariff Actions below).

Multilateral Policy Shifts and Tariff Actions

The Trump administration has emphasized a “America First” trade policy that favors bilateral deals over multilateral agreements. On Jan. 20, 2025 Trump signed an “America First Trade Policy” memo directing USTR to review all existing agreements and seek reciprocity. USTR delivered a 2025 Trade Agenda (March 2025) that stressed WTO reform and enforcing reciprocal treatment for U.S. workers. There are no new large multilateral pacts; focus remains on one‑on‑one talks.

As the July 9 deadline (later extended to Aug 1) approached, Trump announced that tariffs would spike back up for countries without deals. By mid‑July he began sending letters to dozens of leaders (Japan, South Korea, Thailand, etc.) informing them of their new tariff rates if no deal is reached. For example, letters delivered in July to Japan and Korea gave notice of 25% U.S. tariffs on their exports starting Aug 1. Trump likewise notified Vietnam that its 14% tariff (for not agreeing earlier) would roll into effect August 1 (pending final negotiation).

Finally, the legal status of these new tariffs is unsettled. In May 2025 a federal court struck down two sets of Trump’s tariffs (“fentanyl‑related” and the bulk reciprocal tariffs) as beyond executive authority. The government appealed and won a stay on June 10, so for now the tariffs remain in effect. Whether these tariffs will ultimately stand is unresolved, but businesses are preparing for higher import costs on July 9/July 21 etc. if deals are not finalized.

Summary

In sum, Trump’s second term has seen one major trade agreement (UK) completed and one (China) framed, with many others in negotiation. Countries without deals face looming tariff increases, putting pressure on talks. The USMCA, WTO, and global supply-chain issues also loom large (with mandated USMCA review in 2026 and ongoing WTO reform efforts). Key affected industries are agriculture (corn, beef, ethanol, dairy), automotive, steel/aluminum, aerospace, and high tech (digital and advanced manufacturing). The administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” strategy marks a sharp shift: every trade partner now feels the leverage of U.S. tariffs in play, and all are being driven to the negotiating table.

Sources: Official USTR releases, trade law firm analyses, and major news reports (see citations above). These detail the agreements, ongoing talks, and industry impacts listed.

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